The past two and a half years in multifamily real estate have been unlike anything I’ve seen before. Interest rates collapsed to historic lows, investors piled in, prices soared, and then rates spiked back up—slamming the brakes on deals.
This cycle happened in just 24 months instead of the usual 7 to 10 years. The big question today is whether we already missed the boat or if right now could actually be the best entry point for new investors.
The Risk Most Investors Overlook
Too many investors focus only on projected returns. Marketing packages advertise 18%–20% annual returns, eye-catching IRRs, and strong cash flow. What often gets ignored are the assumptions behind those numbers.
Were those returns built on aggressive rent growth? Unrealistic occupancy levels? Cheap financing that no longer exists?
This is where the concept of risk-adjusted return comes in. It’s not enough to ask “what will I make?” The smarter question is “what risk am I taking to make it?” If you ignore the risk side of the equation, you set yourself up for losses when the market shifts.
Multifamily Has Always Been a Safer Bet
Compared to other real estate asset classes, multifamily historically sits at the lower end of the risk spectrum. Institutional lenders have always favored it, offering the best loan terms—long amortization schedules, interest-only periods, high leverage, and non-recourse loans.
Those terms reflect how lenders view apartments: one of the safest investment vehicles available.
But even within that safer space, risk levels change over time. The fundamentals remain strong—people always need housing—but deal structures, financing, and assumptions look very different than they did two years ago.
How the Market Shifted in Record Time
In 2020–2021, COVID pushed interest rates to historic lows. Banks lent aggressively, often covering 80% of the purchase price plus construction financing. Inflation from stimulus checks drove rent growth, and investors underwrote deals with $500 rent bumps that looked great on paper. Prices skyrocketed, peaking in March 2022.
Then the environment flipped. Rates climbed five points in just 18 months. Banks froze or slashed leverage. Owners with variable-rate loans couldn’t refinance. At the same time, new supply hit the market, softening rents in many metros, while insurance and taxes spiked. What normally plays out over a decade happened in two years.
Why Today’s Environment Is Safer for Long-Term Investors
Conditions now look very different. Interest rates are high but stable, and most economists project them to stay flat or trend down. Lenders are slowly raising leverage again, a sign they see less risk. Prices are already 30–50% below peak levels, creating discounted buying opportunities.
Even though debt costs more today, the lower basis makes deals safer. With fixed-rate loans locked for 5–10 years and lower leverage requirements, properties have lower break-even occupancies and more room to ride out short-term challenges. On paper, returns may look smaller than they did in 2021, but the risk-adjusted returns are stronger.
The Opportunity in Today’s Market
Two years ago, multifamily was at its peak—cheap debt, high leverage, and inflated prices. Today the environment has flipped. Rates are higher, leverage is lower, and prices have corrected by as much as 50%.
For investors who underwrite conservatively and lock in stable financing, this may be the strongest buying window we’ve seen in years.
If you want the full breakdown and a deeper dive into this conversation, click the link below to watch the complete video.